Live Betting
Live Betting
Live Betting
Master in-play betting with real-time data, dynamic insights, and AI-powered tools that help you spot value as the action unfolds.
Master in-play betting with real-time data, dynamic insights, and AI-powered tools that help you spot value as the action unfolds.
Introduction
Introduction
Live is not just about watching the game — it’s about reacting smarter than the market. With AIstats, you’re not guessing anymore.
Live is not just about watching the game — it’s about reacting smarter than the market. With AIstats, you’re not guessing anymore.
You can:
see which team is actually dominating (not just favored by pre-match odds),
catch market delays and find hidden value in-play,
respond instantly based on pressure, momentum, or sudden tactical shifts.
You can:
see which team is actually dominating (not just favored by pre-match odds),
catch market delays and find hidden value in-play,
respond instantly based on pressure, momentum, or sudden tactical shifts.
For many users, Live betting is where they see faster returns — powered by real data, not gut feeling.
For many users, Live betting is where they see faster returns — powered by real data, not gut feeling.
Bank Management
Bank Management
Mastering bank management is what separates winners from casual bettors. It’s not just about how much you bet — it’s about how you protect your capital and control your risk over time.
Mastering bank management is what separates winners from casual bettors. It’s not just about how much you bet — it’s about how you protect your capital and control your risk over time.
Here’s what professional-level bankroll management looks like:
Here’s what professional-level bankroll management looks like:
Golden Rules:
Golden Rules:
Stake 1–2% of your total bankroll per bet — this keeps you in the game even after losing streaks
Use a flat stake strategy — avoid emotional scaling or doubling down
Track your results and adjust your base stake only after a significant sample (50+ bets)
Always separate your betting money from your personal finances
Stake 1–2% of your total bankroll per bet — this keeps you in the game even after losing streaks
Use a flat stake strategy — avoid emotional scaling or doubling down
Track your results and adjust your base stake only after a significant sample (50+ bets)
Always separate your betting money from your personal finances
Why Most Bettors Fail:
Why Most Bettors Fail:
Betting 10–20% or more per bet
“Chasing” losses after emotional defeats
Letting wins give a false sense of skill and overconfidence
Jumping from strategy to strategy without proper tracking
Betting 10–20% or more per bet
“Chasing” losses after emotional defeats
Letting wins give a false sense of skill and overconfidence
Jumping from strategy to strategy without proper tracking
Bankroll Management is Especially Important When:
Bankroll Management is Especially Important When:
You're betting on live markets, where odds move quickly
You're using strategies with higher variance (like longshots, big odds, or accumulator bets)
You want to transition from casual betting to stable income over time
You're betting on live markets, where odds move quickly
You're using strategies with higher variance (like longshots, big odds, or accumulator bets)
You want to transition from casual betting to stable income over time
Bank management doesn’t feel exciting — but it’s what keeps your account alive and gives your strategy a chance to shine. Without it, even the best predictions can leave you broke.
Bank management doesn’t feel exciting — but it’s what keeps your account alive and gives your strategy a chance to shine. Without it, even the best predictions can leave you broke.
Tools Overview
Tools Overview
Live betting requires instant awareness and fast, data-informed decision-making.
Live betting requires instant awareness and fast, data-informed decision-making.
To support this, AIstats offers a suite of live metrics designed to provide actionable insights into team performance, momentum shifts, and unexpected value opportunities — in real time.
To support this, AIstats offers a suite of live metrics designed to provide actionable insights into team performance, momentum shifts, and unexpected value opportunities — in real time.
Live Insights
Live Insights
Live Insights displays all currently ongoing matches, ranked by the selected performance metric.
Live Insights displays all currently ongoing matches, ranked by the selected performance metric.
Available Metrics:
Available Metrics:
Real-time Power (rtP) – see which team is in control right now
Real-time Advantage (rtA) – compare real performance to expected strength
Real-time Power Index (rtPI) – performance rating based on similarity to previous matches
Similar Match Insights – find where odds may be wrong based on similar matches
Real-time Power (rtP) – see which team is in control right now
Real-time Advantage (rtA) – compare real performance to expected strength
Real-time Power Index (rtPI) – performance rating based on similarity to previous matches
Similar Match Insights – find where odds may be wrong based on similar matches
How to Read Live Insights Like a Pro
How to Read Live Insights Like a Pro
Live Insights helps you quickly scan all matches and spot hidden value before the market adjusts. You don’t need to open each match — just follow these cues on the list screen:
Live Insights helps you quickly scan all matches and spot hidden value before the market adjusts. You don’t need to open each match — just follow these cues on the list screen:
Look for green numbers above +20%
Look for green numbers above +20%
When a match shows +20% or more (especially rtA or SMI) — it's likely the model sees strong momentum or mispricing.
When a match shows +20% or more (especially rtA or SMI) — it's likely the model sees strong momentum or mispricing.
✔️ Prioritize matches between 7' and 25'.
✔️ Earlier signals = better odds before shift.
✔️ Prioritize matches between 7' and 25'.
✔️ Earlier signals = better odds before shift.
Match minute matters
Match minute matters
📍 Ignore matches that are still at 2'–3' unless you know exactly what you're looking for.
📍 Best action window: 7' to 25' — teams have settled, but the market might still lag.
📍 Ignore matches that are still at 2'–3' unless you know exactly what you're looking for.
📍 Best action window: 7' to 25' — teams have settled, but the market might still lag.
Multiple metrics? Even better
Multiple metrics? Even better
If a match shows both high rtA and high SMI — that’s a strong combo.
Worth opening for deeper analysis (Graph, xP, stats).
If a match shows both high rtA and high SMI — that’s a strong combo.
Worth opening for deeper analysis (Graph, xP, stats).
When to skip
When to skip
🚫 Low metric value (<10%) or too late in the match (>70')
🚫 Don’t waste time — Live Insights constantly updates.
🚫 Low metric value (<10%) or too late in the match (>70')
🚫 Don’t waste time — Live Insights constantly updates.
Real-Time Power (rtP)
Real-Time Power (rtP)
Real-Time Power (rtP) combines all real-time stats, from possession to advanced metrics like EPV, to show how your team is performing against the opponent.
Real-Time Power (rtP) combines all real-time stats, from possession to advanced metrics like EPV, to show how your team is performing against the opponent.
How it calculated?
How it calculated?
Real-time Power (rtP) measures how strong a team is playing right now. It’s calculated minute-by-minute based on a set of in-game statistics from over 2,200 tournaments worldwide. The algorithm evaluates overall gameplay and outputs a value between 1 and 100.
Real-time Power (rtP) measures how strong a team is playing right now. It’s calculated minute-by-minute based on a set of in-game statistics from over 2,200 tournaments worldwide. The algorithm evaluates overall gameplay and outputs a value between 1 and 100.
Understanding the Scores
Understanding the Scores
Real-Time Power (rtP) always adds up to 100 between both teams. If your team has 63, the opponent has 37 — meaning you're dominating the game. The higher your number, the stronger your performance compared to the opponent.
Real-Time Power (rtP) always adds up to 100 between both teams. If your team has 63, the opponent has 37 — meaning you're dominating the game. The higher your number, the stronger your performance compared to the opponent.
Using Real-Time Power (rtP) in Live Insights
Using Real-Time Power (rtP) in Live Insights
What to look for:
Big gaps between teams (e.g., 70 vs 30 = +40 difference)
High rtP early in the match
Underdog team with dominant rtP = value bet
What to look for:
Big gaps between teams (e.g., 70 vs 30 = +40 difference)
High rtP early in the match
Underdog team with dominant rtP = value bet
Best time to act:
7'–20': Market is still adjusting. Best odds.
Tip: Sit on the match for 2–3 minutes. If dominance holds and odds haven’t shifted — act fast.
Best time to act:
7'–20': Market is still adjusting. Best odds.
Tip: Sit on the match for 2–3 minutes. If dominance holds and odds haven’t shifted — act fast.
What not to do:
Don’t bet just because rtP is high.
Check if it’s stable or just a temporary spike.
Don’t wait too long — by 25', odds may drop or shift.
What not to do:
Don’t bet just because rtP is high.
Check if it’s stable or just a temporary spike.
Don’t wait too long — by 25', odds may drop or shift.
Performance Graph
Performance Graph
Performance Graph compares real-time performance with expected performance. It shows if the team is underperforming or exceeding expectations.
Performance Graph compares real-time performance with expected performance. It shows if the team is underperforming or exceeding expectations.
What are rtP and xP?
What are rtP and xP?
Real-Time Power (rtP) - combines all real-time stats to show how your team is performing against the opponent.
Expected Power (xP) - shows the expected level of team performance based on similar matches.
Real-Time Power (rtP) - combines all real-time stats to show how your team is performing against the opponent.
Expected Power (xP) - shows the expected level of team performance based on similar matches.
Understanding the Scores
Understanding the Scores
You can view Real-Time Power (rtP) always adds up to 100 between both teams. If your team has 63, the opponent has 37 — meaning you're dominating the game. The higher your number, the stronger your performance compared to the opponent. Report for the following markets:
You can view Real-Time Power (rtP) always adds up to 100 between both teams. If your team has 63, the opponent has 37 — meaning you're dominating the game. The higher your number, the stronger your performance compared to the opponent. Report for the following markets:
Using Performance Graph in Live Betting
Using Performance Graph in Live Betting
What to look for:
rtP significantly higher than xP = team is doing better than expected
rtP significantly lower than xP = team is underperforming
Steady growth in rtP line over time = building pressure
What to look for:
rtP significantly higher than xP = team is doing better than expected
rtP significantly lower than xP = team is underperforming
Steady growth in rtP line over time = building pressure
Best time to act:
Between 10’–25’: Market still uses pre-match odds
When gap between rtP and xP is 40+ points and trending further
Best time to act:
Between 10’–25’: Market still uses pre-match odds
When gap between rtP and xP is 40+ points and trending further
What to avoid:
Sudden rtP spikes without consistent growth
Gaps that close quickly — might be misleading momentum
Teams that start strong but rtP drops toward xP again (fake pressure)
What to avoid:
Sudden rtP spikes without consistent growth
Gaps that close quickly — might be misleading momentum
Teams that start strong but rtP drops toward xP again (fake pressure)
Similar Match Insights
Similar Match Insights
Similar Match Insights сompares probabilities based on similar matches with bookmaker odds. The percentage shows the difference from bookmaker odds.
Similar Match Insights сompares probabilities based on similar matches with bookmaker odds. The percentage shows the difference from bookmaker odds.
How it works
How it works
The system analyzes match stats at a specific moment and finds the most similar matches from a database of over 800k games. It then selects around 100 of the similar matches, calculates how often the selected outcome occurred, and compares that probability with odds.
The system analyzes match stats at a specific moment and finds the most similar matches from a database of over 800k games. It then selects around 100 of the similar matches, calculates how often the selected outcome occurred, and compares that probability with odds.
Let’s see how this works in real matches
Let’s see how this works in real matches
The system analyzes match stats at a specific moment and finds the most similar matches from a database of over 800k games. It then selects around 100 of the similar matches, calculates how often the selected outcome occurred, and compares that probability with odds.
The system analyzes match stats at a specific moment and finds the most similar matches from a database of over 800k games. It then selects around 100 of the similar matches, calculates how often the selected outcome occurred, and compares that probability with odds.
Using Similar Match Insights in Live Betting
Using Similar Match Insights in Live Betting
What to look for:
+20% or more difference between match data and bookmaker odds
High model confidence (65%+ from similar matches)
A strong SMI signal before 25’, when market still lags behind data
What to look for:
+20% or more difference between match data and bookmaker odds
High model confidence (65%+ from similar matches)
A strong SMI signal before 25’, when market still lags behind data
Best moment to act:
Minute 7–20 — model has enough data, market hasn’t adjusted
When SMI shows 25%+ edge on 1X2 or total goals
If odds still offer 2.50+ on the predicted outcome — that’s a clear edge
Works well in lower leagues where models outperform bookies more often
Best moment to act:
Minute 7–20 — model has enough data, market hasn’t adjusted
When SMI shows 25%+ edge on 1X2 or total goals
If odds still offer 2.50+ on the predicted outcome — that’s a clear edge
Works well in lower leagues where models outperform bookies more often
What to avoid:
SMI signals after 35’ — market already adjusts
Blindly trusting the model without watching momentum or rtP
What to avoid:
SMI signals after 35’ — market already adjusts
Blindly trusting the model without watching momentum or rtP
Common Scores in Similar Matches
Common Scores in Similar Matches
Common Scores shows the most likely score from matches with the most similar stats to current match. Each percentage reflects how often the score occurred.
Common Scores shows the most likely score from matches with the most similar stats to current match. Each percentage reflects how often the score occurred.
How it works
How it works
The system analyzes match stats at a specific moment and finds the most similar matches from a database of over 800k games. It then selects around 100 of the similar matches and shows how often each final score occurred.
The system analyzes match stats at a specific moment and finds the most similar matches from a database of over 800k games. It then selects around 100 of the similar matches and shows how often each final score occurred.
Practical Use
Practical Use
This data helps set realistic expectations for the final score based on how similar matches played out. It highlights which scorelines are most typical in this kind of game — and which ones are unlikely.
This data helps set realistic expectations for the final score based on how similar matches played out. It highlights which scorelines are most typical in this kind of game — and which ones are unlikely.
Using Common Scores in Live Betting
Using Common Scores in Live Betting
What to Look For:
1–2 scores dominating (65%+) — clear predictive pattern
One score appears 2x+ more often than any other
Match minute: after 65’ (use when game is shaping toward a known end pattern)
What to Look For:
1–2 scores dominating (65%+) — clear predictive pattern
One score appears 2x+ more often than any other
Match minute: after 65’ (use when game is shaping toward a known end pattern)
When it’s useful:
When you’re considering a win bet, and top scorelines confirm that outcome
To evaluate whether the current score is likely to hold
To support Over/Under decisions late in the game
When it’s useful:
When you’re considering a win bet, and top scorelines confirm that outcome
To evaluate whether the current score is likely to hold
To support Over/Under decisions late in the game
Strategies
Strategies
You’ve learned how to read the data — now here’s how to act on it.
You’ve learned how to read the data — now here’s how to act on it.
These strategies are based on live testing, user feedback, and pattern recognition across thousands of matches. They’re not just ideas — they’re repeatable systems that convert insight into ROI.
These strategies are based on live testing, user feedback, and pattern recognition across thousands of matches. They’re not just ideas — they’re repeatable systems that convert insight into ROI.
Strategy 1: Early Dominator
Goal
Goal
Identify matches early where one team is clearly dominating — but the market hasn’t fully reacted yet.
Identify matches early where one team is clearly dominating — but the market hasn’t fully reacted yet.
How it works
How it works
Look between the 7th and 20th minute for matches where:
One team has a Real-Time Power (rtP) advantage of 40+ points over the opponent (e.g. 70 vs 30)
The same team had an Expected Power (xP) of 40 or less pre-match — they weren’t supposed to dominate
Their odds are shortening, but still playable (e.g. 1.65 to 2.10)
Look between the 7th and 20th minute for matches where:
One team has a Real-Time Power (rtP) advantage of 40+ points over the opponent (e.g. 70 vs 30)
The same team had an Expected Power (xP) of 40 or less pre-match — they weren’t supposed to dominate
Their odds are shortening, but still playable (e.g. 1.65 to 2.10)
Then:
Don’t bet immediately — watch the match for 1 to 3 minutes
Confirm that the rtP is stable or still rising, not just a spike
Check if the performance makes sense visually — not caused by a single random moment (e.g. red card or fluke goal)
Then:
Don’t bet immediately — watch the match for 1 to 3 minutes
Confirm that the rtP is stable or still rising, not just a spike
Check if the performance makes sense visually — not caused by a single random moment (e.g. red card or fluke goal)
You’re looking for real dominance, not just a moment.
You’re looking for real dominance, not just a moment.
When to Bet
When to Bet
Once confirmed:
Bet on the team to Win (1X2)
Alternative: “Next Goal” or 0.5 Handicap
Once confirmed:
Bet on the team to Win (1X2)
Alternative: “Next Goal” or 0.5 Handicap
What to Avoid
What to Avoid
Don’t bet just because rtP is above 70
Don’t ignore xP — if both rtP and xP are high, the performance may just be expected
Don’t wait too long — value disappears fast after the market adjusts
Don’t bet just because rtP is above 70
Don’t ignore xP — if both rtP and xP are high, the performance may just be expected
Don’t wait too long — value disappears fast after the market adjusts
Strategy 2: Hidden Value from Similar Match Insights
Catch mispriced odds by comparing real-time patterns with historical match behavior.
Catch mispriced odds by comparing real-time patterns with historical match behavior.
Match: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
Minute: 2’
Odds: Atlético Win @ 2.75
Similar Match Win Rate: 65%
Bookmaker Win Probability: ~36%
Difference: +30%
Bet placed on Atlético → Final Score: 1–0
Match: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
Minute: 2’
Odds: Atlético Win @ 2.75
Similar Match Win Rate: 65%
Bookmaker Win Probability: ~36%
Difference: +30%
Bet placed on Atlético → Final Score: 1–0
How it works
How it works
The system analyzes real-time data (e.g., ball possession, attacks, xG) and compares it to a massive database of 800k+ matches
When a strong match pattern is detected, the tool calculates the historical win rate for the same conditions
If the model’s probability is 20% or more above the bookmaker’s odds, it highlights the mismatch
Best used in Live Insights during early stages of the game: 1’–15’
The system analyzes real-time data (e.g., ball possession, attacks, xG) and compares it to a massive database of 800k+ matches
When a strong match pattern is detected, the tool calculates the historical win rate for the same conditions
If the model’s probability is 20% or more above the bookmaker’s odds, it highlights the mismatch
Best used in Live Insights during early stages of the game: 1’–15’
Strategy Tip
Strategy Tip
Sort by Similar Match Insights in Live Insights tab
Sort by Similar Match Insights in Live Insights tab
Focus on mismatches above +20%, especially when the underdog is showing early dominance
Verify stability: even though the insight is shown early, watch for a few minutes to confirm momentum
Ideal betting window: 2’–15’, before odds adjust
Focus on mismatches above +20%, especially when the underdog is showing early dominance
Verify stability: even though the insight is shown early, watch for a few minutes to confirm momentum
Ideal betting window: 2’–15’, before odds adjust
Monetization Tip
Monetization Tip
Great for Next Goal or 1X2 live bets, especially when the favorite looks passive and model finds sharp contrast
Can be paired with Real-Time Power for confirmation
Great for Next Goal or 1X2 live bets, especially when the favorite looks passive and model finds sharp contrast
Can be paired with Real-Time Power for confirmation
Strategy 3: Correct Score Grouping
Goal
Goal
Use Common Scores in Similar Matches to select the most likely final score outcomes — and bet on grouped correct score markets before the odds collapse.
Use Common Scores in Similar Matches to select the most likely final score outcomes — and bet on grouped correct score markets before the odds collapse.
How it works
How it works
At around minute 50–70, open the Common Scores tab for a live match.
At around minute 50–70, open the Common Scores tab for a live match.
You're looking for:
2–3 scores that clearly dominate the list
Together, they cover 80% or more of the similar match outcomes
Each of them appears more than 2x as often as any others
The current match score still allows for those outcomes
You're looking for:
2–3 scores that clearly dominate the list
Together, they cover 80% or more of the similar match outcomes
Each of them appears more than 2x as often as any others
The current match score still allows for those outcomes
Then:
Go to your bookmaker and open the Correct Score group markets
Some books let you bet on grouped scores like:
“Any of: 2–1, 3–1, 3–2”
or “Exact score ranges”
Then:
Go to your bookmaker and open the Correct Score group markets
Some books let you bet on grouped scores like:
“Any of: 2–1, 3–1, 3–2”
or “Exact score ranges”
Choose the top group based on Common Scores.
Choose the top group based on Common Scores.
When to Bet
When to Bet
Ideal timing: minute 45–55
The model has enough data
Market odds are still moving
You still have time before substitution chaos or full match volatility
Ideal timing: minute 45–55
The model has enough data
Market odds are still moving
You still have time before substitution chaos or full match volatility
Especially strong when:
The match is not yet decided (1-goal margin or draw)
Top 3–4 scores cover >70% of model probability
At least 2 scores are different from the current score
Especially strong when:
The match is not yet decided (1-goal margin or draw)
Top 3–4 scores cover >70% of model probability
At least 2 scores are different from the current score
What to Avoid
What to Avoid
Betting on Common Scores before 40’ — too early, patterns not yet stable
If top scores only cover ~40–50% — not strong enough signal
If market already adjusted (Correct Score odds dropped heavily)
If current score is 3–0+ or has red cards — likely outlier game
Betting on Common Scores before 40’ — too early, patterns not yet stable
If top scores only cover ~40–50% — not strong enough signal
If market already adjusted (Correct Score odds dropped heavily)
If current score is 3–0+ or has red cards — likely outlier game
Tips & Facts for Live Betting
Tips & Facts for Live Betting
Live betting is where skill, timing, and discipline come together. These tips and facts are based on real patterns we’ve seen from profitable users — and the mistakes that cost beginners the most. Use this section as a mental checklist before every live session.
Live betting is where skill, timing, and discipline come together. These tips and facts are based on real patterns we’ve seen from profitable users — and the mistakes that cost beginners the most. Use this section as a mental checklist before every live session.
What experienced users do
What experienced users do
They wait for confirmation from multiple signals — e.g. rtP + rtA + Graph alignment
They skip more than they bet — no signal = no action
They don’t chase early market moves — they chase data
They wait for confirmation from multiple signals — e.g. rtP + rtA + Graph alignment
They skip more than they bet — no signal = no action
They don’t chase early market moves — they chase data
Common mistakes to avoid
Common mistakes to avoid
Betting on a team just because the odds dropped
Entering too early on rtP without Graph confirmation
Overreacting to a goal when the data still shows underperformance
Placing bets based on intuition or team names instead of signals
Betting on a team just because the odds dropped
Entering too early on rtP without Graph confirmation
Overreacting to a goal when the data still shows underperformance
Placing bets based on intuition or team names instead of signals
Key facts to remember
Key facts to remember
rtP spikes mean nothing if they reverse 3 minutes later
Most value appears between minutes 7–30, when pressure builds but odds haven't reacted
Lower leagues = more market inefficiencies, but also more noise — always cross-check
High rtA (>+30) is often the earliest sign of real control
Use Graph trends, not just current values — direction matters
rtP spikes mean nothing if they reverse 3 minutes later
Most value appears between minutes 7–30, when pressure builds but odds haven't reacted
Lower leagues = more market inefficiencies, but also more noise — always cross-check
High rtA (>+30) is often the earliest sign of real control
Use Graph trends, not just current values — direction matters
Good habits to follow
Good habits to follow
Track every bet, signal used, and reasoning — even if you skip the game
Limit your live exposure to 2–3 games at a time
Focus on a few signals — get good at reading 2–3 metrics, not chasing them all
Track every bet, signal used, and reasoning — even if you skip the game
Limit your live exposure to 2–3 games at a time
Focus on a few signals — get good at reading 2–3 metrics, not chasing them all
Download & Start Winning!
Download &
Start Winning
Download & Start Winning!
Prematch Betting isn’t about predicting the future and lucky guesses — it’s about structured thinking and preparing smarter.
Prematch Betting isn’t about predicting the future and lucky guesses — it’s about structured thinking and preparing smarter.
FrTurn data into your competitive edgeand stay ahead of the game.
